| Source | Market | Change | Time |
|---|
| Kalshi |
Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT? |
↑ 264% (11% → 40%) |
(vs last snapshot, 2.7 days ago) |
| Kalshi |
Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $3.5 at 4 PM ET on Oct 02? |
↑ 257% (14% → 50%) |
(vs ~24h ago) |
| Kalshi |
Will OpenRouter total token usage for Sep 21–27, 2026 be above 142T tokens? |
↑ 225% (16% → 52%) |
(vs ~24h ago) |
| Kalshi |
Will Anthropic release Mythos before Nov 1, 2026? |
↑ 200% (2% → 6%) |
(vs last snapshot, 5 days ago) |
| Kalshi |
Will Alibaba have a top-ranked AI model before 2027? |
↑ 200% (3% → 9%) |
(vs ~24h ago) |
| Kalshi |
Claude Pro (monthly) price increase in 2026? |
↑ 150% (6% → 15%) |
(vs last snapshot, 2.7 days ago) |
| Kalshi |
Top Coding AI this week? |
↑ 138% (40% → 95%) |
(vs ~24h ago) |
| Kalshi |
Will OpenRouter total token usage for Sep 21–27, 2026 be above 144T tokens? |
↑ 133% (9% → 21%) |
(vs ~24h ago) |
| Kalshi |
Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $1 at 4 PM ET on Sep 25? |
↑ 120% (44% → 97%) |
(vs ~24h ago) |
| Kalshi |
Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jan 1, 2027? |
↑ 117% (6% → 13%) |
(vs last snapshot, 1.7 days ago) |
| # | Question | Yes | No | Change | Volume |
|---|
| 1 | Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? | 6% | 94% |
↓ 48% (was 12%) (vs last snapshot, 3.7 days ago) | $6,137 |
| 2 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | 3% | 97% |
| $5,218 |
| 3 | U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? | 12% | 88% |
↑ 9% (was 11%) (vs ~24h ago) | $5,049 |
| 4 | Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? | 11% | 89% |
↓ 20% (was 14%) (vs ~24h ago) | $1,089 |
| 5 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | 74% | 26% |
| $1,074 |
| 6 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO | 0% | 100% |
↓ 50% (was 0%) (vs last snapshot, 4.7 days ago) | $1,000 |
| 7 | Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? | 2% | 98% |
↓ 3% (was 2%) (vs last snapshot, 17.0h ago) | $954 |
| 8 | Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | 97% | 3% |
| $606 |
| 9 | AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026? | 6% | 94% |
↓ 19% (was 7%) (vs ~24h ago) | $597 |
| 10 | AI bubble burst in 2026? | 10% | 90% |
| $585 |
| 11 | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | 78% | 22% |
| $513 |
| 12 | OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? | 85% | 15% |
↑ 9% (was 78%) (vs ~24h ago) | $440 |
| 13 | Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | 51% | 49% |
↓ 8% (was 55%) (vs ~24h ago) | $412 |
| 14 | OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? | 59% | 41% |
↓ 18% (was 72%) (vs last snapshot, 1.7 days ago) | $400 |
| 15 | Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? | 6% | 94% |
↓ 13% (was 8%) (vs ~24h ago) | $256 |
| 16 | Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | 3% | 97% |
↓ 7% (was 4%) (vs last snapshot, 1.7 days ago) | $246 |
| 17 | Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da | 60% | 40% |
| $234 |
| 18 | OpenAI IPO before 2027? | 3% | 97% |
| $201 |
| 19 | OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | 64% | 36% |
| $170 |
| 20 | Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m squ | 1% | 99% |
| $169 |
| 21 | Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4 | 0% | 100% |
| $169 |
| 22 | Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4 | 0% | 100% |
| $169 |
| 23 | Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4 | 99% | 1% |
| $169 |
| 24 | Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.6m & 4 | 1% | 99% |
↓ 25% (was 1%) (vs last snapshot, 17.0h ago) | $169 |
| 25 | Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.8m & 5 | 0% | 100% |
| $169 |
| 26 | Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be at least 5m squa | 0% | 100% |
| $149 |
| 27 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by Dece | 4% | 96% |
| $140 |
| 28 | Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | 1% | 99% |
| $105 |
| # | Question | Yes | No | Change | Volume |
|---|
| 1 | Google market share this week? (Above 20.0%) | 84% | 16% |
↑ 62% (was 52%) (vs ~24h ago) | $18,571 |
| 2 | Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? (ChatGPT) | 12% | 88% |
↓ 5% (was 13%) (vs ~24h ago) | $16,239 |
| 3 | Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? (Grok) | 3% | 97% |
↓ 12% (was 3%) (vs ~24h ago) | $11,388 |
| 4 | Best AI this week (MUSE) | 1% | 99% |
| $10,873 |
| 5 | Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? (Gemini) | 8% | 92% |
↓ 7% (was 9%) (vs ~24h ago) | $9,367 |
| 6 | Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $1 at 4 PM ET on (Above $1.00) | 97% | 3% |
↑ 120% (was 44%) (vs ~24h ago) | $9,304 |
| 7 | Best AI this week (ChatGPT) | 2% | 98% |
↓ 33% (was 3%) (vs ~24h ago) | $9,071 |
| 8 | Anthropic market share this week? (Above 2.9%) | 15% | 85% |
↓ 12% (was 17%) (vs ~24h ago) | $8,786 |
| 9 | Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? (Claude) | 72% | 28% |
| $8,531 |
| 10 | Will Ramp AI Index OpenAI model adoption rate for September 2026 be ab (Above 40.5%) | 3% | 97% |
| $8,376 |
| 11 | Google market share this week? (Above 19.3%) | 96% | 4% |
↑ 25% (was 77%) (vs ~24h ago) | $7,780 |
| 12 | DeepSeek market share this week? (Above 24.9%) | 70% | 30% |
↑ 13% (was 62%) (vs ~24h ago) | $6,586 |
| 13 | Anthropic market share this week? (Above 2.8%) | 32% | 68% |
↓ 29% (was 45%) (vs ~24h ago) | $6,226 |
| 14 | OpenAI market share this week? (Above 17.8%) | 82% | 18% |
↓ 6% (was 87%) (vs ~24h ago) | $5,934 |
| 15 | Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? (Muse Spark) | 2% | 98% |
↓ 9% (was 2%) (vs ~24h ago) | $5,918 |
| 16 | What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-fable-5) | 1% | 99% |
| $5,667 |
| 17 | Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? (Before 2027) | 14% | 86% |
↓ 10% (was 16%) (vs ~24h ago) | $5,337 |
| 18 | Anthropic market share this week? (Above 2.7%) | 72% | 28% |
↑ 12% (was 64%) (vs ~24h ago) | $5,078 |
| 19 | Google market share this week? (Above 18.3%) | 99% | 1% |
↑ 5% (was 94%) (vs ~24h ago) | $4,667 |
| 20 | DeepSeek market share this week? (Above 25.4%) | 26% | 74% |
↓ 21% (was 33%) (vs ~24h ago) | $4,657 |
| 21 | Xiaomi market share this week? (Above 1.9%) | 88% | 12% |
↑ 6% (was 83%) (vs ~24h ago) | $4,479 |
| 22 | Tencent market share this week? (Above 5.7%) | 1% | 99% |
↓ 88% (was 8%) (vs ~24h ago) | $4,443 |
| 23 | Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jan 1, 2027? (Before Jan 1, 2027) | 13% | 87% |
↑ 117% (was 6%) (vs last snapshot, 1.7 days ago) | $4,095 |
| 24 | Tencent market share this week? (Above 6.4%) | 1% | 99% |
↓ 75% (was 4%) (vs ~24h ago) | $3,920 |
| 25 | Qwen market share this week? (Above 7.8%) | 2% | 98% |
↓ 60% (was 5%) (vs ~24h ago) | $3,859 |
| 26 | Google market share this week? (Above 18.6%) | 97% | 3% |
↑ 17% (was 83%) (vs ~24h ago) | $3,750 |
| 27 | OpenAI market share this week? (Above 21.7%) | 1% | 99% |
| $3,696 |
| 28 | Tencent market share this week? (Above 5.9%) | 1% | 99% |
↓ 90% (was 10%) (vs ~24h ago) | $3,600 |
| 29 | DeepSeek market share this week? (Above 25.9%) | 2% | 98% |
↓ 90% (was 19%) (vs ~24h ago) | $3,533 |
| 30 | Best AI this week (Claude) | 97% | 3% |
| $3,516 |