AI Market Predictions

Each edition cross-checks the day's top AI news against live prediction-market prices on Kalshi and Polymarket: which model releases, compute and regulatory outcomes are being repriced, by how much, and where the crowd's expectations are actually shifting.

Latest: October 15, 2026 (17 UTC)

Largest move: Kalshi — "Will the U.S. ban any open-source AI model in 2026?" surged 200% (1% to 3%) (vs last snapshot, 7.0h ago)
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