AI Market Intelligence Daily
November 10, 2026 | Generated 15:00 UTC
Top Prediction Movements
1. Anthropic's IPO window collapsed from months to days. The announcement of an IPO price range of $70 to $78 per share, implying a $1.404 trillion valuation, reset the entire Anthropic announcement-date ladder on Kalshi within 24 hours: "before Nov 16" collapsed from 8% to 1%, "before Dec 1" jumped from 78% to 97%, and "before Jan 1, 2027" reached 98%. The market is now effectively pricing a filing before the Nov 16 cutoff, and Goldman Sachs sits at 96% to be lead-left underwriter against JPMorgan at 2% and Morgan Stanley at 1%.
2. The front-runners in the model race are Google's Gemini, not OpenAI. Gemini holds 75% on "best AI at end of November" (down only slightly from a week ago) and 90% for best AI this week, while ChatGPT sits at 3% and Claude at 22%. OpenAI's release markets tell the same story: Astra 6.1 by Dec 31 is at 99%, but a top-ranked OpenAI model before 2027 trades at just 12% and GPT-7 before March 2027 at 14%.
3. Benchmark and AGI markets repriced sharply upward, the first sustained capability surge in the data. "Any LLM scoring at least 75% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31" nearly tripled from 17% to 49%, and "any company announcing AGI before Oct 1, 2027" quadrupled from 10% to 34%, even as the shorter 2026 and 2027 horizons held at 6% and 52%. The 1580 Coding Arena threshold market also crept up to 61%, suggesting traders are connecting recent frontier releases to a step-change in frontier benchmarks.
4. Anthropic's new model wave is already visible in the release ladder. Fable 5.2 is at 99% for every date bucket through Dec 1, effectively settled; Mythos before Jan 1, 2027 sits at 4%; and the surprise of the day is Opus 6, which surged from 2% to 12% for a Dec 1 release, the largest single move in the report. Combined with "Claude 6+ (any family) before Jun 30" at 66%, the market is pricing a near-certain major Claude refresh within two quarters.
5. DeepSeek is the clearest divergence between price action and news. Its Vercel AI Gateway share market (above 14.4%) jumped from 36% to 75% in 24 hours, yet no top news story mentions DeepSeek at all, and its weekly share brackets trade across a wide 4% to 73% range. That gap between a sharp, unexplained price move and a quiet news cycle is the day's most interesting signal, and worth watching into the next data release.
Key Takeaways
1. Largest move: Kalshi —
"Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Dec 1, 2026?" surged 500%
(2% → 12%) (vs ~24h ago).
2. News context:
Top stories (15 fetched) do not show direct overlap with the most volatile markets
(88 movers). Price shifts may be from trading activity rather than headline-driven sentiment.
3. Movement breakdown:
- Polymarket: 25 markets moved ≥5%
- Kalshi: 63 markets moved ≥5%
- Total monitored: 38 Polymarket + 142 Kalshi = 180
4. Extreme pricing:
- 24 markets priced >90% (high conviction Yes)
- "Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?" at 97%
- "Anthropic IPO before 2027?" at 96%
- 65 markets priced <10% (low conviction Yes)
- "Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?" at 8%
- "Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?" at 2%
Notable Price Movements (vs Previous Snapshot)
| Source | Market | Change | Time |
|---|
| Kalshi |
Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Dec 1, 2026? |
↑ 500% (2% → 12%) |
(vs ~24h ago) |
| Kalshi |
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence ( |
↑ 240% (10% → 34%) |
(vs last snapshot, 11.1h ago) |
| Kalshi |
Will any LLM score at least 75% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? |
↑ 188% (17% → 49%) |
(vs last snapshot, 11.1h ago) |
| Polymarket |
Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026? |
↑ 131% (1% → 3%) |
(vs last snapshot, 4.7 days ago) |
| Kalshi |
DeepSeek Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 14.4% |
↑ 108% (36% → 75%) |
(vs ~24h ago) |
| Kalshi |
Will any AI model have a score of at least 1700 before Jan 1, 2027 |
↑ 100% (1% → 2%) |
(vs last snapshot, 11.1h ago) |
| Kalshi |
Will Grok App Downloads for November 2026 be above 44.5 ? |
↑ 90% (20% → 38%) |
(vs ~24h ago) |
| Kalshi |
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? |
↓ 88% (8% → 1%) |
(vs ~24h ago) |
| Polymarket |
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day b |
↑ 83% (1% → 3%) |
(vs last snapshot, 4.7 days ago) |
| Kalshi |
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? |
↓ 80% (5% → 1%) |
(vs ~24h ago) |
Top AI News Stories
Polymarket — AI-Related Markets
Active Markets: 38 (showing top 30 by volume)
| # | Question | Yes | No | Change | Volume |
|---|
| 1 | Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | 3% | 97% |
↓ 65% (was 9%) (vs ~24h ago) | $39,935 |
| 2 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | 20% | 80% |
↓ 13% (was 24%) (vs ~24h ago) | $35,662 |
| 3 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local | 32% | 68% |
↑ 26% (was 26%) (vs ~24h ago) | $23,301 |
| 4 | Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections | 66% | 34% |
↓ 10% (was 74%) (vs ~24h ago) | $16,987 |
| 5 | AI bubble burst in 2026? | 6% | 94% |
↓ 23% (was 8%) (vs ~24h ago) | $15,905 |
| 6 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO | 98% | 2% |
| $12,086 |
| 7 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | 1% | 99% |
↓ 3% (was 1%) (vs ~24h ago) | $9,858 |
| 8 | Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? | 1% | 99% |
↓ 50% (was 1%) (vs ~24h ago) | $7,046 |
| 9 | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | 96% | 4% |
↑ 9% (was 88%) (vs ~24h ago) | $6,683 |
| 10 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close | 0% | 100% |
| $4,174 |
| 11 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO | 0% | 100% |
| $3,667 |
| 12 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close | 0% | 100% |
↓ 50% (was 0%) (vs last snapshot, 10.8 days ago) | $3,087 |
| 13 | Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on I | 5% | 95% |
↑ 14% (was 5%) (vs last snapshot, 2.0h ago) | $2,977 |
| 14 | Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da | 29% | 71% |
↓ 8% (was 32%) (vs last snapshot, 2.7 days ago) | $2,414 |
| 15 | Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 202 | 12% | 88% |
↓ 42% (was 20%) (vs ~24h ago) | $2,384 |
| 16 | Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on | 3% | 97% |
↑ 83% (was 1%) (vs last snapshot, 4.7 days ago) | $2,117 |
| 17 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close | 0% | 100% |
↓ 67% (was 0%) (vs last snapshot, 26.8 days ago) | $1,946 |
| 18 | Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? | 6% | 94% |
| $1,933 |
| 19 | Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 92% |
↓ 10% (was 9%) (vs last snapshot, 11.1h ago) | $1,828 |
| 20 | Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026? | 3% | 97% |
↑ 131% (was 1%) (vs last snapshot, 4.7 days ago) | $1,134 |
| 21 | Will the US federal government take a stake in NVIDIA Corporation? | 8% | 92% |
↓ 23% (was 11%) (vs ~24h ago) | $931 |
| 22 | Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | 2% | 98% |
| $717 |
| 23 | Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? | 1% | 99% |
↓ 22% (was 1%) (vs ~24h ago) | $550 |
| 24 | OpenAI IPO before 2027? | 2% | 98% |
| $513 |
| 25 | Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? | 25% | 75% |
↓ 10% (was 28%) (vs last snapshot, 2.7 days ago) | $509 |
| 26 | Will AI-chip export licensing become law this year? | 16% | 84% |
↓ 11% (was 18%) (vs last snapshot, 11.1h ago) | $448 |
| 27 | Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | 61% | 39% |
↑ 10% (was 56%) (vs last snapshot, 1.7 days ago) | $390 |
| 28 | Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Ch | 10% | 90% |
↓ 9% (was 12%) (vs ~24h ago) | $336 |
| 29 | Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | 97% | 3% |
| $271 |
| 30 | OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? | 34% | 66% |
↓ 22% (was 44%) (vs last snapshot, 2.7 days ago) | $232 |
Kalshi — AI-Related Markets
Active Markets: 142 (showing top 30 by volume)
| # | Question | Yes | No | Change | Volume |
|---|
| 1 | When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? (Before Nov 16, 2026) | 1% | 99% |
↓ 88% (was 8%) (vs ~24h ago) | $365,621 |
| 2 | When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? (Before Dec 1, 2026) | 97% | 3% |
↑ 24% (was 78%) (vs ~24h ago) | $86,131 |
| 3 | When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? (Before Jan 1, 2027) | 98% | 2% |
↑ 13% (was 87%) (vs ~24h ago) | $55,391 |
| 4 | Best AI at end of November 2026? (Claude) | 22% | 78% |
↓ 4% (was 23%) (vs ~24h ago) | $40,532 |
| 5 | Will Google release next Gemini Pro model before Nov 16, 2026? (Before Nov 16, 2026) | 1% | 99% |
↓ 75% (was 4%) (vs last snapshot, 11.1h ago) | $24,259 |
| 6 | Best AI at end of November 2026? (Gemini) | 75% | 25% |
| $23,719 |
| 7 | Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Dec 31, 2026? (Before Dec 31, 2026) | 99% | 1% |
↑ 10% (was 90%) (vs ~24h ago) | $23,470 |
| 8 | Best AI at end of November 2026? (ChatGPT) | 3% | 97% |
| $19,597 |
| 9 | Will any AI model have a score of at least 1700 before Jan 1, 2027 (At least 1700 score) | 2% | 98% |
↑ 100% (was 1%) (vs last snapshot, 11.1h ago) | $19,525 |
| 10 | Best AI this week (Claude) | 10% | 90% |
↓ 50% (was 20%) (vs last snapshot, 11.1h ago) | $18,821 |
| 11 | Best AI this week (Gemini) | 90% | 10% |
↑ 8% (was 83%) (vs last snapshot, 11.1h ago) | $18,745 |
| 12 | Best AI at end of November 2026? (Muse) | 2% | 98% |
| $16,701 |
| 13 | Best AI this week (ChatGPT) | 2% | 98% |
| $12,641 |
| 14 | Will Goldman Sachs serve as lead-left underwriter on Anthropic's IPO? (Goldman Sachs) | 96% | 4% |
| $11,546 |
| 15 | Will Anthropic release Mythos before Dec 1, 2026? (Before Dec 1, 2026) | 4% | 96% |
↑ 33% (was 3%) (vs ~24h ago) | $11,508 |
| 16 | Will Google release next Gemini Pro model before Dec 1, 2026? (Before Dec 1, 2026) | 9% | 91% |
↑ 50% (was 6%) (vs ~24h ago) | $9,643 |
| 17 | When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? (Before Feb 1, 2027) | 97% | 3% |
↑ 8% (was 90%) (vs ~24h ago) | $9,190 |
| 18 | Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Denver, CO before Jan 1, 2027? (Denver, CO) | 76% | 24% |
| $8,628 |
| 19 | Will Open AI or Anthropic IPO first? (Anthropic) | 99% | 1% |
↑ 3% (was 96%) (vs ~24h ago) | $8,520 |
| 20 | Will Anthropic release Fable 5.2 before Nov 16, 2026? (Before Nov 16, 2026) | 99% | 1% |
| $7,614 |
| 21 | Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jan 1, 2027? (Before Jan 1, 2027) | 4% | 96% |
↓ 20% (was 5%) (vs last snapshot, 11.1h ago) | $7,383 |
| 22 | Anthropic Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 3 (Above 30.9%) | 99% | 1% |
| $7,300 |
| 23 | Best AI this week (Grok) | 1% | 99% |
| $5,750 |
| 24 | When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? (Before Apr 1, 2027) | 99% | 1% |
↑ 6% (was 93%) (vs ~24h ago) | $5,682 |
| 25 | Google market share this week? (Above 12.3%) | 90% | 10% |
| $4,700 |
| 26 | Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Nov 13, 2026? (Before Nov 13, 2026) | 48% | 52% |
↑ 9% (was 44%) (vs ~24h ago) | $4,427 |
| 27 | Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Inte (Before Apr 1, 2028) | 52% | 48% |
↑ 6% (was 49%) (vs last snapshot, 11.1h ago) | $4,014 |
| 28 | Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Inte (Before Oct 1, 2027) | 34% | 66% |
↑ 240% (was 10%) (vs last snapshot, 11.1h ago) | $3,632 |
| 29 | Will Gemini app downloads for November 2026 be above 156.5 ? (Above 156.5) | 93% | 7% |
↑ 9% (was 85%) (vs ~24h ago) | $3,605 |
| 30 | When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? (Before Mar 1, 2027) | 95% | 5% |
| $3,595 |